The June 2020 spike in U.S. COVID-19 cases indicates a rising percentage of infections and is not simply an artifact of more testing
Detecting more COVID-19 cases alone does not necessarily indicate that the epidemic is worsening, as it could merely result from an expanded testing capacity. A more useful metric for understanding the recent spike in U.S. cases is the proportion of tests with a positive result—called the positivity rate—which takes into account any variations in the total number of tests being performed so that actual epidemiological dynamics can be assessed. During the second half of June 2020, the positivity rate, together with the number of people visiting hospitals due to COVID-19-like illness increased. Taken together, both observations indicate that the COVID-19 epidemic is regaining strength, and that the increase in reported cases is not solely due to increased testing capacity, but due to more infections in the community.